Possible scenario
Retaliation Escalates
30% Chance
Iran chooses to demonstrate that it is not defeated by attacking US or Israeli assets. The escalation remains below a total regional war, but it forces Washington and Jerusalem to prepare follow-on strikes.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.3%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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