Possible scenario
Hormuz Oil Shock
18% Chance
The key uncertainty for markets is whether Iran tries to impose costs through energy shipping rather than direct attacks on the US homeland. Even a temporary threat to the Strait of Hormuz would quickly lift oil prices and inflation expectations.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +5.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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