Possible scenario
AI Reshoring Accelerates
38% Chance
Washington treats the record deficit as evidence that AI hardware demand is outrunning domestic semiconductor and server capacity. The most likely policy path is more targeted incentives rather than a sweeping trade rupture, because the U.S. still needs imported memory, GPUs, advanced packaging and lithography inputs.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
- Technology +0.2%
- Utilities
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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