Possible scenario
Verification Deal Advances
45% Chance
Trump's claim proves broadly accurate because Tehran decides the oil blockade is too costly and accepts monitored limits close to the previously floated 20-year suspension. The International Atomic Energy Agency becomes the key arbiter, while Washington keeps sanctions relief conditional and Israel reserves judgment.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.