Possible scenario
Iran Rejects Claim
20% Chance
Iranian leaders deny that they abandoned nuclear-weapons options and frame Trump's statement as propaganda designed to justify the blockade. Hardliners in Tehran regain leverage, increasing the risk of renewed enrichment or proxy retaliation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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