Possible scenario
Blockade Talks Drag
25% Chance
Trump uses the claim to argue that economic pressure is working, but Iran does not provide enough verification for Washington to lift the blockade. Negotiations continue, with oil exports still effectively stopped and both sides trying to avoid open conflict.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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