Orderly Deleveraging

Lenders tighten underwriting, borrowers refinance selectively, and used-car values stop falling enough to avoid a disorderly liquidation cycle. This is the most likely path because large banks and captive finance arms still have funding access and can absorb losses more gradually than smaller subprime specialists.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.