Possible scenario
Ukraine Blunts Strikes
25% Chance
Ukraine adapts its interception tactics and prioritizes scarce Western air-defense missiles around critical nodes. Russia keeps attacking, but the marginal damage per barrage declines.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +0.4%
- Industrials -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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