Possible scenario
Sustained Energy Barrage
45% Chance
Russia continues using Zircon missiles and drones against Ukrainian power generation and substations as winter approaches. The campaign remains focused on degrading electricity supply rather than expanding the war beyond Ukraine.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.6%
- Utilities -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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