Possible scenario
Escalation Risk Rises
20% Chance
The Zircon-heavy barrage increases the risk of a more dangerous episode, including debris crossing NATO airspace or Ukrainian retaliation against Russian logistics. This remains less likely than a contained campaign, but it would produce a sharper risk-off reaction.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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