Possible scenario
Correction, Not Crash
30% Chance
Jones’s short call proves directionally useful but too sweeping. Equities suffer a valuation reset as investors demand more compensation for fiscal and inflation risk, but earnings and buybacks prevent a systemic bear market.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.8%
- Finance -0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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