Possible scenario
Bear Thesis Validated
35% Chance
Paul Tudor Jones’s warning becomes a focal point for investors already worried about fiscal deficits, sticky inflation and stretched AI valuations. The most likely bearish path is not a single-day crash, but a broad 2027 de-rating led by higher term premia and fading confidence in policy credibility.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Bitcoin Down
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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