Possible scenario
Narrow GOP Hold
44% Chance
Republicans remain favored because Florida's electorate, voter-file history, and Election Day turnout still lean right. The Day 1 early-vote collapse from a 25-point GOP lead in 2024 to 0.1% in 2026 signals a much more competitive environment, but not necessarily a Democratic statewide win.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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