Possible scenario
GOP Turnout Rebound
21% Chance
The Day 1 early-vote figure turns out to reflect ballot-timing changes rather than a durable partisan swing. Republicans again dominate Election Day voting and restore a comfortable Florida advantage by the final count.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
- Finance +0.4%
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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