Possible scenario
Two-Way Trading Restored
30% Chance
Beijing may prefer to prevent both depreciation and excessive appreciation, using fixings, state-bank activity, and liquidity tools to restore two-way trading. This would preserve the political benefit of rejecting undervaluation accusations while protecting exporters from a rapid currency squeeze.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials -0.1%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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