Possible scenario
Managed Appreciation Continues
45% Chance
The most likely path is that the People's Bank of China allows continued yuan strength while discouraging a disorderly one-way trade. This is consistent with recent signals that Beijing is tolerating a stronger currency to rebut undervaluation claims and attract portfolio inflows.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Copper Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +0.4%
- Technology +0.3%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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