Possible scenario
Sustained New York Outperformance
40% Chance
New York's 4% Q2 growth proves to be more than a one-quarter rebound, with finance, professional services, AI leasing and tourism reinforcing each other into early 2027. Strong national GDP and improving office utilization keep the state ahead of other large economies such as California, Texas and Florida.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.7%
- Business Services +0.4%
- Consumer Services +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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