Possible scenario
Narrow Finance-Led Cycle
25% Chance
The headline 4% growth rate masks a more concentrated expansion, with securities industry profits and prime Manhattan office leasing doing most of the work. Outer-borough small businesses, lower-tier office properties and affordability-sensitive households see fewer benefits.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
- Business Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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