Possible scenario
Proxy Retaliation
25% Chance
Iran is likely to prefer deniable retaliation over a direct state-on-state clash. Iraqi militias, Syrian networks, cyber operators, or maritime harassment can answer the U.S. move while preserving Tehran's ability to calibrate escalation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.5%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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