Possible scenario
Limited Kinetic Clash
20% Chance
A smaller but significant risk is that the reward announcement lands in an already unstable military cycle after the drone shootdown and Kurdish strike. A misread signal or militia attack could produce direct U.S., Israeli, or IRGC action without yet becoming a declared war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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