Possible scenario
Legal Pressure Holds
45% Chance
The most likely path is that Washington treats the reward offer as a law-enforcement and intelligence tool rather than the opening move in a military operation. The State Department, Treasury OFAC, Israel, the EU, and Gulf partners increase pressure on IRGC Aerospace Force networks while avoiding direct strikes.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.2%
- Finance -0.2%
- Industrials +0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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