Possible scenario
Fiscal Reflation Doubts
25% Chance
Some investors remain skeptical that the Takaichi administration has abandoned reflationary instincts, especially if fiscal support and tax cuts remain central to the policy agenda. The Finance Ministry's language limits the damage, but yen and bond markets price a higher risk premium.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.4%
- Industrials +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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