Possible scenario
Unrest Widens Again
28% Chance
Macron's decision to retain Nunez angers protesters and opposition parties, who portray the move as defiance rather than accountability. Demonstrations expand beyond the original flashpoints, forcing the government to increase policing and consider tighter local restrictions.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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