Possible scenario
Security Continuity Holds
42% Chance
Macron's refusal to accept Laurent Nunez's resignation preserves command continuity at the Interior Ministry. The government uses the decision to signal that the police response will continue under the same leadership while avoiding a broader cabinet crisis.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
- Finance +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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