Possible scenario
Government Fractures Politically
18% Chance
Opposition parties use Macron's decision to keep Nunez as evidence that the government is refusing accountability. The center of the risk shifts from street violence to parliamentary instability and questions about Macron's ability to manage the crisis.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.6%
- Consumer Services -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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