Possible scenario
GOP Spending Converts
42% Chance
The Republican ad advantage proves decisive in the final weeks, especially where Senate Leadership Fund and NRSC spending overwhelms Democratic closing messages. Republicans retain Senate control, likely with a narrow but workable majority.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.5%
- Energy +0.5%
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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