Possible scenario
Democrats Neutralize Ads
28% Chance
Democratic candidates use superior candidate-level fundraising, field operations and abortion-focused messaging to blunt the Republican outside-spending advantage. Senate Majority PAC narrows the late ad gap enough for Democrats to win the tossup mix.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare -0.3%
- Energy -0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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