Possible scenario
Mediation Pauses Fighting
20% Chance
Oman, the UN, and regional intermediaries move quickly to prevent the Bab al-Mandab battle from becoming a wider shipping crisis. The Houthis may use the battlefield win as leverage for recognition, prisoner releases, or port revenue concessions.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.4%
- Energy -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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