Possible scenario
Houthi Hold Consolidates
40% Chance
Houthi forces retain control around Bab al-Mandab and Mokha after repelling the government offensive. Saudi-backed units remain near the front, but the immediate balance favors the Houthis because they have prepared coastal positions and can threaten shipping with missiles, drones, and shore-based weapons.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.9%
- Industrials -0.7%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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