Possible scenario
Counteroffensive Resumes
25% Chance
Al-Alimi's government and Saudi-backed forces treat the failed attack as a setback rather than an endpoint. They bring in reinforcements, drones, artillery, and naval support to reopen the Bab al-Mandab corridor or at least deny the Houthis uncontested control.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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