Possible scenario
Replacement Revives Inquiry
30% Chance
The resignation may be tactical rather than terminal, with Florida or Trump-aligned federal officials appointing a replacement to continue the inquiry. This outcome keeps pressure on Trump critics and preserves a confrontational legal strategy.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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