Possible scenario
Oversight Fight Escalates
25% Chance
Olsen's departure could become evidence in a larger congressional fight over whether Trump allies used prosecutorial power against political enemies. The public Senate hearing involving Jack Smith gives lawmakers a venue to connect the Florida probe to broader Justice Department conduct.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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