Possible scenario
Washington Reopens Review
25% Chance
The scale of Chinese demand triggers a political and national-security reassessment in Washington, especially if lawmakers argue the sales undermine the intent of AI export controls. Nvidia faces uncertainty over whether existing licenses cover the full order volume or whether new caps are needed.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -2.3%
Tickers
- -4.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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