Possible scenario
Export Licenses Hold
45% Chance
The U.S. Commerce Department allows the approved Nvidia China product channel to continue, treating the orders as commercial sales under existing controls rather than a new strategic breach. Chinese buyers including Tencent, Alibaba and ByteDance proceed with deposits, while Nvidia and its foundry and memory partners expand 2027 allocation plans.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +2.9%
- Industrials +0.4%
Tickers
- +6.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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