Possible scenario
Benchmark Advantage Narrows
27% Chance
Follow-up testing shows Hao AI Lab's advantage is narrower than the headline suggests, especially outside static visual-input tasks. GPT-6 Astra and Claude Opus 5.5 remain stronger on multimodal reasoning, tool use, and generalization.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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