Possible scenario
Violent Escalation
27% Chance
PTI supporters attempt to breach security lines around Islamabad and Rawalpindi, leading to clashes with police, Rangers, and possibly army units. The risk is not a national regime collapse, but the violence would raise concerns over governability, IMF implementation, and civil-military cohesion.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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