Possible scenario
Security Containment Holds
42% Chance
The Shehbaz Sharif government and Interior Ministry use the 35,000-troop deployment, road closures, and mass preventive detentions to keep most PTI supporters out of central Islamabad. Protests continue in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, but the state prevents a decisive occupation of the capital.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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