Possible scenario
Negotiated De-Escalation
20% Chance
Back-channel talks involving the government, PTI intermediaries, and establishment figures produce a temporary pause in street confrontation. The government may offer court-access assurances for Imran Khan or release some detained family members and party workers without conceding early elections.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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