Possible scenario
Republican Late Recovery
22% Chance
Trump's 10-state push improves turnout in rural and exurban districts, limiting Democratic gains. Republicans retain narrow control of the House and Senate, but the margins are too small to create a strong mandate.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.7%
- Finance +0.5%
- Industrials +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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