Possible scenario
Democratic Wave
27% Chance
Trump's travel fails to offset weak approval numbers, abortion politics, and candidate-quality problems in key Senate races. Democrats convert the improved Senate map into a governing trifecta in Congress, creating a sharper policy pivot risk for taxes, healthcare, and energy.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.7%
- Finance -0.7%
- Healthcare +0.2%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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