Possible scenario
Democratic House Flip
38% Chance
Trump's late travel helps energize Republican turnout, but low presidential approval and a broadening map leave Democrats favored to regain the House narrowly. The Senate remains harder for Democrats because the GOP starts with structural advantages and Trump-backed nominees hold enough red-state ground.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.2%
- Technology +0.2%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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