Possible scenario
Reform Faces Fallout
20% Chance
The story could become a broader Reform governance problem if other payments to consultants or AI-ad vendors appear inconsistently disclosed. This would be politically damaging but still unlikely to create broad financial-market stress.
Secondary impacts
- Business Services -0.2%
- Technology -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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