Possible scenario
Yield Pressure Persists
30% Chance
Investors may conclude that the buyback is too small relative to the scale of Treasury issuance and recent liquidity strains. In this scenario, the full take-up highlights demand for liquidity but does not prevent renewed upward pressure on long-term yields.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.0%
- Finance -0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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