Possible scenario
Nuclear Crisis Managed
20% Chance
The visit focuses on Iran's nuclear posture after the Kremlin's public opposition to Tehran leaving the Non-Proliferation Treaty. Russia tries to preserve leverage with Iran while preventing a nuclear rupture that could justify wider Israeli or U.S. action.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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