Possible scenario
Military Cooperation Expands
25% Chance
Lavrov's trip becomes a platform for deeper military coordination, including drones, air defenses, intelligence sharing, or maintenance support. This would be a more market-sensitive outcome because it could raise the odds of Israeli or U.S. countermeasures against Iranian assets.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.5%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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