Possible scenario
Managed Strategic Alignment
40% Chance
Russia and Iran use Lavrov's visit to signal unity against Israel and the U.S. while avoiding steps that would openly cross nuclear or direct-war thresholds. This is the most likely path because Moscow benefits from Iranian partnership but has incentives to prevent an uncontrolled regional crisis.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.1%
- Technology +0.1%
- Energy +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.