Possible scenario
GOP Edge Hardens
40% Chance
Republicans convert the spending edge into a durable late-campaign advantage in the core Senate battlegrounds. MAGA Inc., Senate Leadership Fund, and the NRSC keep Democrats on defense in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.5%
- Finance +0.4%
- Energy +0.4%
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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