Possible scenario
Democrats Close Gap
30% Chance
Democrats raise and deploy enough late money to narrow the Republican advantage across the Blue Wall and Sun Belt. The DSCC, Senate Majority PAC, and state parties lean on abortion, health care, and Social Security messaging to stabilize vulnerable incumbents.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare +0.4%
- Energy -0.3%
- Utilities +0.3%
- Finance -0.2%
- Consumer Services
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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