Possible scenario
Security Escalation
25% Chance
The postponement proves to be an early sign that Saudi security risks are worsening rather than stabilizing. Further Houthi attacks keep executives cautious, raise travel insurance costs, and increase the geopolitical premium in Gulf assets.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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