Possible scenario
Diplomatic Containment
45% Chance
The most likely path is that the Philippines keeps the dispute in diplomatic channels while maintaining resupply missions in the West Philippine Sea. China continues verbal warnings and coast guard shadowing, but both sides avoid a new kinetic incident in the immediate aftermath.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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